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Icarus / Worked example

The group has cash. The entity has a constraint.

In this synthetic example, a group retains over €1 million while its holding company falls €60,000 below its cash buffer for ten days. The missing information is where cash sits, when it arrives and whether another entity is allowed to provide it.

The question a consolidated balance cannot answer

Can each legal entity meet its obligations and keep its agreed buffer over the next 30 days? That question requires dated cash flows and entity boundaries. A group total alone cannot establish whether funds are available to the entity that needs them.

Our public Icarus demonstration models three invented entities: HOLDCO, RESERVE and INVESTCO. The snapshot is 13 September 2026; the scenario horizon runs from 14 September through 13 October. All amounts below are EUR reporting equivalents.

Establish which evidence counts as cash

The source files contain 21 position rows and 20 unique positions. Records A001 and A011 describe the same position P001. It is counted once, while both source references remain visible. Restricted cash of €150,000 is excluded from available opening cash.

A private-asset valuation dated 31 March is 166 days old. The model flags it against its 90-day threshold. It is excluded from liquidity because it is a noncash asset, not written down to zero. An unsettled receivable becomes cash only on its modelled settlement date.

Eligible opening cash is €390,000 at HOLDCO, €800,000 at RESERVE and €165,000 at INVESTCO. Across the horizon, the group receives €300,000 and pays €605,000 in obligations: €1,355,000 + €300,000 − €605,000 = €1,050,000 closing cash.

Change timing, then inspect the entity

The baseline settles receipt S001 on 21 September and pays capital call C001 on 24 September. Advancing the €250,000 call to 18 September creates three end-of-day breaches of HOLDCO’s €200,000 buffer. Delaying the €300,000 receipt to 28 September creates four.

Combining those changes leaves HOLDCO €60,000 below its buffer on ten days, from 18 through 27 September. Group cash never falls below €1,010,000 in that combined scenario. A buffer breach is an explicit model constraint; it is not the same claim as insolvency.

Synthetic model / Results you can inspect

One entity. Five scenarios.

HOLDCO, 30 days from 14 September 2026. Buffer: €200,000.
ScenarioLowest cashLargest buffer shortfallDays below buffer
Baseline€200,000€00
Earlier capital call€140,000€60,0003
Five-business-day settlement delay€140,000€60,0004
Earlier call and settlement delay€140,000€60,00010
Compound scenario with authorised reserve transfer€200,000€00

The table is built from the same calculated snapshot as the interactive demonstration. Each scenario uses fixed assumptions and invented records.

Inspect the synthetic source filesModel assumptions (JSON)

Separate a possible response from authority to act

A €60,000 transfer from RESERVE to HOLDCO on 18 September removes the modelled breach. Route R001 permits at most €100,000; the synthetic approval DEMO-APPROVAL-001 authorises only €60,000 on 18 September 2026. Both must be present for the demonstration to accept the response.

RESERVE remains above its own €500,000 buffer, with a minimum of €690,000 in the transfer scenario. The internal transfer does not create group cash: closing cash remains €1,050,000. The demo simulates a permitted response and executes no payment.

Read the assumptions before using the result

  • Calculations are deterministic. The public example uses no AI model and no client data.
  • EUR and USD balances are tracked separately; the EUR view uses the fixed fixture rate of 0.90 EUR per USD. It does not simulate FX execution.
  • The settlement delay counts Monday to Friday and does not include a bank-holiday calendar.
  • The model evaluates end-of-day balances, with receipts, permitted transfers and obligations in the stated calculation order. It does not establish intraday liquidity.
  • No asset sales, borrowing, fees, interest or taxes are assumed beyond the listed fixtures. These are scenarios under defined conditions, not forecasts or financial advice.

Turn the example into a scoped client workflow

A client project starts by agreeing what counts as available liquidity, which entities and currencies matter, who owns the source records, and which funding routes can be considered. Domain owners validate the assumptions and acceptance criteria.

The next useful capability is often a reproducible review: inspect the source of an exception, compare a small number of explicit scenarios, then assemble a brief for the person authorised to decide. Additional AI interpretation can be evaluated separately from the cash calculation.

Practical answers

Questions before the first conversation.

Is this a real family-office case study?

No. It is a working demonstration with invented records, fixed scenarios and a synthetic approval. It illustrates the method and does not claim client results.

What does the ontology add?

It connects each account to its entity, restrictions, obligations, settlement events and permitted funding routes. Those relationships explain why a group-level number can hide a local constraint.

Does Icarus predict future markets?

This demonstration compares specified timing assumptions. It makes no market prediction. A different model would require its own data, validation and limits.

Continue exploring

Start with one decision

Bring the question.
We’ll map the possibilities.

Tell us the workflow, the source systems and the constraints. We’ll establish the right scope for a demonstration and a first build.

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